How high dot ball percentage, middle-over muddle led to Pakistan’s downfall
CHENNAI: Just as Michael Bracewell punched Rishad Hossain at the Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium on Monday night, it sealed the fate of the two semifinalists from Group A in the ongoing ICC Champions Trophy. New Zealand knocked out Bangladesh with a five-wicket win, in the process confirming India’s qualification and Pakistan’s elimination from the tournament.
While New Zealand’s win against Bangladesh on Monday came as the final nail in the coffin for tournament hosts’, the actual reason for their downfall lies within. At a time when teams are trying to get ahead of the curve in how the ODI format is played, Pakistan seem to be stuck in the past decade. The top three taking time to build the innings, batting for 35 overs before giving a final push in the last 15 is a template several teams, including India, followed with a lot of success in the 2010s.
The question of what happens when your top-order fails in a do-or-die match came to haunt Pakistan— as it did for India in the 2019 ODI WC — and as a result, slowly but steadily the approach, especially in the first 15 overs began to change. At least for most teams, but not Pakistan. Barring Saim Ayub and Fakhar Zaman — one got injured in January and the other during the first game against New Zealand — none of the top three Pakistan batters have a strike rate over 90 since 2024. In this period, Babar Azam’s SR is 76.93, Abdullah Shafique operates at 71.01 and Kamran Ghulam 86.79.
The strike rate is just the foreword of a book that could be written on the issues with Pakistan cricket. If one breaks it down, beneath it is the number of dot balls Pakistan play in the 50-over format. Since the beginning of this year, Pakistan has played approximately 145 dot balls per innings on average across five matches. In this Champions Trophy alone, they played 161 dot balls against New Zealand in Pakistan and 147 against India in Dubai. Among the teams that are taking part in the Champions Trophy, Bangladesh and Afghanistan have worse dot-ball record but they have played fewer games.